Monday, March 17, 2008

Solution to Florida and Michigan

Barack Obama can bring an end to the impasse with Florida and Michigan with a simple compromise measure: seat Florida and Michigan's delegates as is under one condition: all of Michigan's "Uncommitted" delegates become pledged to him.  Given that Sen. Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot, it only strikes me as fair that the people who showed up to vote against her have their votes count, as well.  Seems simple and fair enough, except for one problem for Sen. Clinton: seating Michigan and Florida "as is" only nets her a 44 delegate gain, which chops Obama's pledged delegate lead from 169 to 125.  She would need to carry Pennsylvania with 95% of the vote to overcome that lead (there aren't enough delegates in Pennsylvania for her to overcome his present pledged delegate lead), or else carry every remaining state (including Pennsylvania and all the way up to Puerto Rico) with an at least 64% of the vote.  That's with Florida and Michigan added to the tally.  Without them?  She has to win every remaining state with at least 69%.  In other words, Florida and Michigan don't aid her cause as much as she'd like us to believe, unless she insists on some "winner take all" standard for those states which hasn't been applied to any other state and she's not in a position to demand.  Absent that, adding Florida and Michigan moves her chances from just this side of impossible to... just this side of impossible.
Obama should agree to seat Michigan and Florida (with the one caveat I specified above regarding uncommitted delegates), then he should show this math to the press and call on Sen. Clinton to bow out gracefully.  If she won't, then the remaining superdelegates need to put this one to rest.  It's all over but the crying, but if I know Sen. Clinton, there's still a lot of that to be had.


pandora said...

The Clintons will never give up.

WASHINGTON - After a weekend of campaign adversity, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband separately prodded Democratic Party leaders on Monday to look beyond mere delegate strength in picking a presidential nominee at this summer's national convention.

"I don't know that it will be an easy decision, but that's what leaders sign up for," said the former president, declaring that his wife's ability to win a general election should be considered.

The former first lady, who trails rival Sen. Barack Obama in the delegate chase, concurred. "I think it's a question about everything and I think people are going to have to take everything into account," she told reporters.

Made in different settings, the remarks underscore the debate roiling the Democratic Party as the primary season nears an apparently inconclusive end — while Republicans have begun to close ranks around Sen. John McCain for the fall campaign.

They also ran contrary to sentiments expressed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the weekend. "If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic Party," she said in an interview.

They don't care about "The Democratic Party", Pelosi, voters, or anything else. She's "in it to win" and if she can't, then she'd rather see McCain win, so she can run in 2012.

CarbonDate said...

You know what? After Obama's speech on race, it's perfectly clear to me which of these candidates is best for America. I think the superdelegates probably see the same thing. In short: fuck her.

pandora said...

It pleasantly surprised me to wake up to news of Richardson's Obama endorsement.

Maybe the party grown-ups are stepping up to stop the train wreck the Clintons are brewing.

Hope so!