Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Obama: 9 for 9 since Super Tuesday

Let's run the list:

Louisiana: Obama, 57 - 36.
Nebraska: Obama, 68 - 32.
Washington: Obama, 68 - 31.
Maine: Obama, 59 - 40.
District of Columbia: Obama, 75 - 24.
Maryland: Obama, 60 - 37.
Virgina: Obama, 64 - 35.
Wisconsin: Obama, 58 - 41.
Hawaii: Obama, 76 - 24 (so far).

Obama's smallest lead has been in Wisconsin, winning by "only" 17 percentage points. Hawaii is Obama's home state, so I doubt it's going to deviate much from his current 51 percentage point lead. By the way, can we scratch the ARG polls? You know, the ones that Clinton supporters were citing all week claiming she was ahead in Wisconsin?

In 13 days, Vermont, Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island vote. According to polls I've seen, Obama is tied with Clinton in Texas, while Clinton holds a commanding lead in Ohio. But... there are 13 days for Obama to introduce himself to the voters in those states and make his case. I predict a close race in Ohio (with Wisconsin being a possible harbinger of things to come) with Texas a surprise win for Obama. I also expect Vermont and Rhode Island to fall to Obama, as well. If Obama only had seven days I'd feel differently, but given how much ground Obama can cover when he has time, I expect that March 4 will not be the knock-out for Clinton that she was hoping, and may possibly spell her doom.

Hillary is on the ropes, and she needs to win at least two states (at least one of which has to be one of the large states) on March 4 in order to remain competitive. If she loses every state on March 4, she should drop out gracefully and support Obama, because she will be done. Superdelegates will not risk offending their voters by supporting Clinton over Obama at that point, so she will have no further recourse to carry the nomination.

If she scores big on March 4, that puts her back in the driver's seat. But for that to happen, her campaign needs to change tactics in a big way, because what she's doing isn't working. I think it may be too late in the game for that big of an adjustment. This one was over when Clinton failed to knock out Obama on Super Tuesday. She didn't have a game plan after that, and it shows.

4 comments:

pandora said...

Her husband agrees with you.....

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/20/686166.aspx

Bill Clinton just said this about his wife's campaign while in Texas:

"If she wins in Texas and Ohio, she'll be the nominee. If she doesn't, I don't think she can be. It's all on you."

LMB said...

I was kind of surprised by the large margin Obama won by in Wisconsin, but one of the polls that had them neck and neck was polling just Democrats. I think the big swing came from non-Democrats, who were left out of that particular poll I saw. My parents, for example, haven't voted Democrat in decades (if ever), and they voted for Obama; I think that's where the (almost unexpected) large margin of victory came from.

CarbonDate said...

I had some thoughts on a few things Hillary could have said which might have changed her fortunes:

"Michigan and Florida need to abide by the rules like everybody else. I feel that stripping them of their delegates is too harsh a penalty, but hopefully we can work out a later primary date so that the voters in these two states can have a voice in choosing our nominee."

But the truth is that Hillary wanted the primaries front-loaded so she could lock up the nomination before any challengers could gain traction.

"Barack Obama is a talented politician with a promising future. I look forward to voting for him for President in 2016. However, I think I'm better prepared to tackle the Presidency now because (fill in the blank)."

But the truth is that they've nothing but contempt for Obama.

"I have every confidence that superdelegates will not overturn the will of the voters. We intend to carry our message to the remaining states and win more pledged delegates than Sen. Obama. However, if the people choose my opponent, I will respect that -- and I'm certain that Sen. Obama will, too."

But the truth is that they intended to win at all costs and disenfranchise the voters if they had to.

"My opponent says that I believe in a top-down model. That's not true. I intend to invite the American people back into the political process as active participants. It belongs to all of us, after all."

But that would be the opposite of the truth. They've nothing but contempt for the American people, as evidenced by Hillary addressing her supporters like they're a Kindergarten class.

"It's time for me to have a reality break: Barack Obama is clearly the choice of the people, and I need to stop clinging to any false hopes of carrying the nomination. I hereby give my support to Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States."

Ah, but I'm getting ahead of myself....

pandora said...

One more:

Obama Wins Democrats Abroad Global Primary

The results of the Global Primary are as follows:

Biden 0.1%

Clinton 32.7%

Edwards 0.7%

Kucinich 0.6%

Obama 65.6%

Richardson 0.1%

Uncommitted 0.2%

These results determine the allocation of 4.5 delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention. Senator Obama won 2.5 delegate votes, and Senator Clinton 2 delegate votes. A further 2.5 votes will be determined at the Democrats Abroad Global Convention in April. In addition, Democrats Abroad holds 4 superdelegate votes. A total of 22 delegates, each with a half vote, will attend the Convention.

http://www.democratsabroad.org/